Thursday, September 20, 2007

Stock Market Comments for Week Beginning September 17, 2007

Comments for Week Beginning September 17
Written by Raymond Merriman

Review and Preview

The sell-off in world equity markets that started with the prior Friday’s surprisingly weak U.S. jobs report, finally reached its bottom nearby to last Tuesday’s solar eclipse. Once that trading cycle trough was completed, most of these indices rallied somewhat sharply to close the week with healthy gains.

In the United States, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to a low of 13,021 late Monday, before recovering smartly to a weekly high on Thursday at 13,469. It closed the week near those highs too, at 13,442, for a weekly gain of 329 points. The NASDAQ Composite followed a similar pattern, with a low last Monday at 2536, but then closing at 2602, slightly off its high for the week at 2612. In neither case, however, did prices exceed the highs of the prior week on September 4, which means the longer-term cycles have yet to confirm their lows as of August 16-17. So for the moment, these markets are in congestion between the lows of August and highs of September 4. Whichever gives first will tells us the probable trend for the next several months. That is, if these indices can close above the highs associated with our three-star critical reversal zone of September 6 +/- 3 trading days, it strongly supports the idea that the 4-year cycle has bottomed in August. But if those lows give way first, then it supports the idea that this 4-year cycle is still unfolding, for its time band is still in effect (2005-2007 in USA, and 2006-2008 in Europe and Asia).

In Europe, the week’s activity was similar. The Netherlands AEX closed up 10.93 at 528.36 after a Monday trough at 512.42. The German DAX, England FTSE, and Swiss stock index all made weekly lows on Monday, then rallied into Thursday. Each closed up for the week. However, in the case of each of the later three indices, they all closed down on Friday, well off those weekly highs, creating some concern that maybe these markets are not as strong as the U.S. markets.

In Asia and the Pacific Rim, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was the stellar performer again, soaring to another new all-time high on Friday at 24,978, and up 915 points on the week. But none of the other indices we track followed suit. India’s NIFTY Index was up only 8 points for the week, closing at 4518, considerably off its high on Friday at 4582. Both the Nikkei of Japan and All Ordinaries of Australia closed near their weekly highs, but were only up 5 and 19 points for the entire week. These later two markets had fallen somewhat sharply into their trading cycle troughs on Monday-Tuesday, especially in the case of Japan where Prime Minister Abe resigned, thus causing some uncertainty in the leadership of that country’s political future. All in all, it was a modesty favorable week for most world indices, but more so in China and the United States.

A bigger story though took place in the currency markets, where the Euro soared to a new all-time high against the U.S. Dollar. Along with that Gold also had an impressive week, reaching 726 in the December contract on Friday, just slightly off its 26-year high in the 740 region attained last May 2006. Crude Oil also soared to a new-time high, finally cracking the 80.00 mark for the first time ever. However, it couldn’t hold it as it closed the week at 79.10, still a record high for a weekly close. And Wheat also soared to its highest level ever, with the December contract exceeding the $9.00/bushel level at one point last Wednesday. It settled the week at 846. All of this happened in the week that the solar eclipse occurred in an opposition aspect to Uranus in Pisces. Uranus the planet rules breakouts, and Pisces the sign rules crude oil in the study of Financial Astrology. But the financial astrology correlate to the sharp rally in currencies and Gold lies with the 11-day transit of heliocentric Mercury in Sagittarius, September 11-22.

Short-Term Geocosmics

Don’t be surprised if this week’s terror alert is raised from orange to red. That’s one of the potential themes with the Sun entering a T-square with the Mars-Pluto opposition, with Pluto still conjunct the Galactic Center. On Monday, the first of this aspect formation unfolds with the Sun in waxing square to Mars. This is a Level One (strongest) signature, with a 76% correlation to primary or greater cycle culminations within an orb of 13 trading days. However, in the study of Mundane Astrology, this has themes related to aggression and military combat. But what makes this particular instance more dangerous is that on September 19 and 21 respectively, both the Sun and Mars enter into a waning square to Pluto and then opposition to Pluto, respectively. And Pluto with these two planets can produce a very explosive situation that endangers the lives of many people. It’s possible that this danger could come in the form of natural calamities. But more often than not, they are man-produced, such as an unexpected intrusion of one country’s military over the borders of another. It might be by accident (although probably not), or by design, especially in the possibility of a terrorist attack. Interesting also is the fact that this is a high holiday in Judaism. With Mars in Gemini, incidents of assaults involving Israel seem to be heightened. This same planet-sign makeup is usually reflected in very sharp price movements in Crude Oil, which we are seeing these days. The fact that Pluto is still nearby to the Galactic Center means that any explosive events are likely to affect larger masses of people, and have a powerful impact upon human consciousness. So it is not a safe time astrologically-speaking. However, as astrologers are well aware, there are a number of other ways that this combination could manifest. For instance, it could be the publication of some book or research study that greatly upsets the belief systems of certain groups or religions.

Longer-Term Thoughts

Looking ahead, we are preparing for the October 9-27 period. During this time, Jupiter will form its third and final waning square aspect to Uranus. Venus will also form its third and final conjunction to Saturn. And the Moon’s South Node will conjunct Saturn. The first of these occurs on October 9. As discussed in previous columns, Jupiter represents the principle of excess and exaggeration, as it big price ranges. Uranus pertains to the principle of the unexpected, sudden events that can dramatically change the trend in effect at the time. Jupiter is one of the planetary co-rulers of Crude Oil too, and we note that ion the two previous passages this year, Crude Oil made a primary cycle trough nearby. In fact in the first instance (mid-January), Crude Oil dropped slightly below $50.00/barrel for the only time this year.

The next signature of this group is the third passage of Venus conjunct Saturn. That will take place on October 13-14. Then prior two instances occurred when these two planets were in Leo. This time they will take place in Virgo. Usually any financial market making a decline into this period will be followed by a major rally.

And the final piece of this triumvirate is the Lunar South Node conjunct Saturn, something that takes place. Astrologers use two positions here, known as “True Node” and “Mean Node.” Together they take place between October 9-27, so the entire period is infused with the saturnine qualities of fear, repression, worry, and a sense of loss. It is interesting to note that in two of the prior three cases of this 11-12 year cycle (1973 and 1985), a crisis was unfolding in the banking community. People had trouble making payments on their debts and credit was tightened considerably, driving many into severe financial straits. Sound familiar? (read, sub-prime). If any declines in world equity markets can hold their declines above the lows of August during this period, I would think the new 4-year cycle would become quite bullish shortly afterwards. However, if there is to be a crack in the system (again), coincident with a sense of financial panic, that’s when it could occur – if it didn’t already manifest in July through early September. Sometimes cycles of this length can have an orb of up to a few months. Nevertheless, these three signatures are all coming up together October 9-27, so caution is still warranted.

Disclaimer and statement of purpose:

The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.

This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.

It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.

No comments: