| Written by Raymond Merriman | |
Review and PreviewWhat a difference BB&P (Ben Bernanke and Paulsen) – the new “Fire Sign Theatre” of our generation - make in today’s financial markets. Just one month ago many of the world’s equity and financial markets were on the verge of spinning out of control. A financial panic was brewing. By August 17, stock markets were down double digits from their all-time or multi-year highs realized in mid-July. Precious metals, crude oil, corn and soybean prices were all making primary cycle lows. Fear swept briskly through the investment community as one sub-prime lender after another went under. And then on August 16, BB&P went into action. First they injected a ton of money into the system to help ease the credit crunch. Then our two “fire sign men of action” orchestrated the reduction of the FED discount rate. And just to make sure investors took them seriously, they lowered the FED Funds rate on Tuesday by a half percent, when most were expecting a reduction of only a quarter percent. Wham! Just like that stock markets around the world were back to the multi-year and all-time highs. Crude oil and wheat are making all-time highs. Gold is back to its highest level in 27 years. And the Dollar has fallen to a new historic low against the Euro currency. The message? Despite their talk of being concerned about inflation, it is absolutely more important to make sure the economy does not go into a recession. Their patience for such a threat is no more than one month – which is somewhat typical of strong fire sign personalities. After all, we are talking about an Aries and Sagittarius: macho-men. Men of action. They aren’t going to sit around and let market forces work things out in their own natural rhythm. Not on our watch. Not if we can do something now to stop this madness. To hell with fighting inflation or reporting money supply figures. We’ve got a guerrilla war on our hands to fight. Fire signs: strong on action, low on patience, and worry about today - not tomorrow. Let the good times roll! We’ll deal with the hangover (inflation, worthless currency problems) later. In the United States, the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared to a high of 13,877 on Friday, up 1360 points (10.8%) from the lows of August 16. I believe this is enough to confirm the August lows as the 4-year cycle trough. If correct, the stock market will go higher- much higher – into 2008, before it falls back to the lows of August again. The NASDAQ Composite rallied to 2683 last week, up 12.4% now in the last 5 weeks. Interestingly enough, neither the NASDAQ or S&P made a new cycle high on Friday as the DJIA did, which could be suggesting a pullback is about to begin. In the Far East and Pacific Rim, the stellar equity performers were in Hong Kong and India. The Hang Seng skyrocketed to a new all-time high on Friday at 25,893, up over 6500 points and 33.5% from its 4-year cycle low of just 5 weeks ago! India’s NIFTY index was right behind, soaring to its highest level ever at 4855 on Friday, up over 21% since August 21. Australia’s All Ordinaries has now risen 16.9% over the past month. Only the Nikkei index failed to appreciate double digits on this recent rally from its lows of August, but was still up a respectable 8% in the past month. In Europe, the rallies were not quite as great – at least not in Zurich and Germany, where the Swiss stock index and DAX only appreciate a little more than 8%. In London, the FTSE reached 6512 on last Wednesday’s reversal date, for a gain of 11.8% off the August lows. And the Netherlands AEX rallied to 545.56 on Friday, for an appreciation of 14% over the lows of five weeks ago. But all of these indices were well below their highs of the year. Another stellar performer last week was crude oil, which exploded for another new all-time high with its 83.90 mark on Thursday. This was a gain of 22% from the lows of August 21. In fact, crude oil is now up nearly 70% from its 4-year cycle low of 49.90 back on January 18 when Jupiter and Uranus formed their first of three square aspects this year. The third and final one will take place on October 9. The second one on May 10 also coincided with a primary cycle trough. Almost as impressive as crude oil has been the move in Silver prices, which rallied from 1128 back on August 16 to 1368 on Friday, for a gain of over 21%. Gold is up over 14.6% in the same time frame. But in the case of Gold, prices are now at their highest levels since the all-time heady high days of early 1980. The Euro currency also raced to new all-time highs last week. Short-Term GeocosmicsSo what was so special about last week? Heliocentric Mercury in Sagittarius (September 11-22) and the Moon in Sagittarius (September 17-19, also known as the “Sagittarius Factor”). Remember Sagittarius and its ruling planet Jupiter has in common the theme of exaggeration and expansion. It is not so unusual to witness strong rallies (or collapses) when the two ingresses are happening simultaneously. There was also a T-square between Sun-Mars-Pluto last week too, the midpoint of which occurred on September 19. That happened to be the day that several indices made their high of the week. For this week, the major geocosmic indicator will occur on Friday, September 28, when Mars moves into Cancer. This will conjunct the natal Pluto, oppose the natal Sun, of the Federal Reserve Board chart (created on December 23, 1913). We can anticipate reversals in interest-rate related markets at that time, and perhaps some criticism directed towards BB&P for their “aggressive” actions as of late. Right now they are heroes for acting aggressively. That honeymoon will end as soon as economic indicators point out the inflation is starting to rise. Longer-Term ThoughtsSo let’s talk about that. When are prices going to rise? When will we see signs of inflation starting to grow? And will it be gradual as we have complacently come to expect? If you ask people who trade precious metals, they will tell you that inflation is already here. If you ask people trading in soybeans, wheat, or crude oil, they will tell you the same. If you ask people in the currency markets, they will point out that the United States is for sale, and the dollar is rapidly losing is purchasing value. It’s just a matter of time before business leaders of the world will no longer want to accept payment of the U.S. dollar for its goods. Its days as the standard world currency are slowly fading into the sunset. And a generation after that may be the demise of English as the world’s standard language. One follows the other. On January 26, 2008, Pluto will begin a 15-year sojourn through Capricorn. It will conjunct the natal Sun and oppose the natal Pluto of the Federal Reserve Board chart, located at 1 and 0 degrees of Capricorn and Cancer respectively. It will also oppose the natal Venus-Jupiter conjunction located in the early degrees of Cancer in the United States of America chart. Venus rules a country’s currency, and Jupiter with Venus, its wealth. Pluto as a transit can pose a “threat” to the areas ruled by the planets it aspects. At the same time (2008-2009), Uranus will pass over 21 degrees of Pisces. Uranus rules the unexpected, and a time in a person’s life when things can spin out of control. Mr. Bernanke’s natal Moon is around 21 Pisces. His natal Sun and Jupiter are at 21 Sagittarius and Gemini respectively. That’s right: they are in a T-square, and Uranus is touching it off. By November of 2008, transiting Saturn will be at 21 Virgo, thus completing the grand square to his natal planets and transiting Uranus. So, does this suggest a period of slow, moderate growth, with inflation under control? I don’t think so. It may be fine for awhile, maybe into the first half of 2008. But once we get to late 2008 through 2009, inflation could grow like… why, wild fire! I wonder what our fire sign “men of action” will do then. Well, interestingly enough, Paulsen’s chart shows no great stress. His term is over, along with Mr. Bush’s. But Mr. Bernanke, the Federal Reserve, and the United States of America are another story. By that time inflation could be in the double digits, Gold could be in the 4 digits, and the DJIA could be in six digits. The best quote of the week comes from former FED Chairman Alan Greenspan in Tuesday’s “Wall Street Journal.” In his memoirs released this week, “Mr. Greenspan takes the President and Republican lawmakers to task for presiding over an explosion of federal spending. He also praised former President Bill Clinton’s stewardship of the economy, particularly his effort to slash deficits. ‘I think we’ve lost our way,’ Greenspan added. ‘I think that Bill Clinton was the best Republican president we’ve had in a while.’” |
Saturday, September 22, 2007
Astrology Comments for the Week Beginning September 24, 2007
Thursday, September 20, 2007
Stock Market Comments for Week Beginning September 17, 2007
| Written by Raymond Merriman | |
Review and Preview
In the United States, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to a low of 13,021 late Monday, before recovering smartly to a weekly high on Thursday at 13,469. It closed the week near those highs too, at 13,442, for a weekly gain of 329 points. The NASDAQ Composite followed a similar pattern, with a low last Monday at 2536, but then closing at 2602, slightly off its high for the week at 2612. In neither case, however, did prices exceed the highs of the prior week on September 4, which means the longer-term cycles have yet to confirm their lows as of August 16-17. So for the moment, these markets are in congestion between the lows of August and highs of September 4. Whichever gives first will tells us the probable trend for the next several months. That is, if these indices can close above the highs associated with our three-star critical reversal zone of September 6 +/- 3 trading days, it strongly supports the idea that the 4-year cycle has bottomed in August. But if those lows give way first, then it supports the idea that this 4-year cycle is still unfolding, for its time band is still in effect (2005-2007 in USA, and 2006-2008 in Europe and Asia). In Europe, the week’s activity was similar. The Netherlands AEX closed up 10.93 at 528.36 after a Monday trough at 512.42. The German DAX, England FTSE, and Swiss stock index all made weekly lows on Monday, then rallied into Thursday. Each closed up for the week. However, in the case of each of the later three indices, they all closed down on Friday, well off those weekly highs, creating some concern that maybe these markets are not as strong as the U.S. markets. In Asia and the Pacific Rim, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was the stellar performer again, soaring to another new all-time high on Friday at 24,978, and up 915 points on the week. But none of the other indices we track followed suit. India’s NIFTY Index was up only 8 points for the week, closing at 4518, considerably off its high on Friday at 4582. Both the Nikkei of Japan and All Ordinaries of Australia closed near their weekly highs, but were only up 5 and 19 points for the entire week. These later two markets had fallen somewhat sharply into their trading cycle troughs on Monday-Tuesday, especially in the case of Japan where Prime Minister Abe resigned, thus causing some uncertainty in the leadership of that country’s political future. All in all, it was a modesty favorable week for most world indices, but more so in China and the United States. A bigger story though took place in the currency markets, where the Euro soared to a new all-time high against the U.S. Dollar. Along with that Gold also had an impressive week, reaching 726 in the December contract on Friday, just slightly off its 26-year high in the 740 region attained last May 2006. Crude Oil also soared to a new-time high, finally cracking the 80.00 mark for the first time ever. However, it couldn’t hold it as it closed the week at 79.10, still a record high for a weekly close. And Wheat also soared to its highest level ever, with the December contract exceeding the $9.00/bushel level at one point last Wednesday. It settled the week at 846. All of this happened in the week that the solar eclipse occurred in an opposition aspect to Uranus in Pisces. Uranus the planet rules breakouts, and Pisces the sign rules crude oil in the study of Financial Astrology. But the financial astrology correlate to the sharp rally in currencies and Gold lies with the 11-day transit of heliocentric Mercury in Sagittarius, September 11-22. Short-Term GeocosmicsDon’t be surprised if this week’s terror alert is raised from orange to red. That’s one of the potential themes with the Sun entering a T-square with the Mars-Pluto opposition, with Pluto still conjunct the Galactic Center. On Monday, the first of this aspect formation unfolds with the Sun in waxing square to Mars. This is a Level One (strongest) signature, with a 76% correlation to primary or greater cycle culminations within an orb of 13 trading days. However, in the study of Mundane Astrology, this has themes related to aggression and military combat. But what makes this particular instance more dangerous is that on September 19 and 21 respectively, both the Sun and Mars enter into a waning square to Pluto and then opposition to Pluto, respectively. And Pluto with these two planets can produce a very explosive situation that endangers the lives of many people. It’s possible that this danger could come in the form of natural calamities. But more often than not, they are man-produced, such as an unexpected intrusion of one country’s military over the borders of another. It might be by accident (although probably not), or by design, especially in the possibility of a terrorist attack. Interesting also is the fact that this is a high holiday in Judaism. With Mars in Gemini, incidents of assaults involving Israel seem to be heightened. This same planet-sign makeup is usually reflected in very sharp price movements in Crude Oil, which we are seeing these days. The fact that Pluto is still nearby to the Galactic Center means that any explosive events are likely to affect larger masses of people, and have a powerful impact upon human consciousness. So it is not a safe time astrologically-speaking. However, as astrologers are well aware, there are a number of other ways that this combination could manifest. For instance, it could be the publication of some book or research study that greatly upsets the belief systems of certain groups or religions. Longer-Term ThoughtsLooking ahead, we are preparing for the October 9-27 period. During this time, Jupiter will form its third and final waning square aspect to Uranus. Venus will also form its third and final conjunction to Saturn. And the Moon’s South Node will conjunct Saturn. The first of these occurs on October 9. As discussed in previous columns, Jupiter represents the principle of excess and exaggeration, as it big price ranges. Uranus pertains to the principle of the unexpected, sudden events that can dramatically change the trend in effect at the time. Jupiter is one of the planetary co-rulers of Crude Oil too, and we note that ion the two previous passages this year, Crude Oil made a primary cycle trough nearby. In fact in the first instance (mid-January), Crude Oil dropped slightly below $50.00/barrel for the only time this year. The next signature of this group is the third passage of Venus conjunct Saturn. That will take place on October 13-14. Then prior two instances occurred when these two planets were in Leo. This time they will take place in Virgo. Usually any financial market making a decline into this period will be followed by a major rally. And the final piece of this triumvirate is the Lunar South Node conjunct Saturn, something that takes place. Astrologers use two positions here, known as “True Node” and “Mean Node.” Together they take place between October 9-27, so the entire period is infused with the saturnine qualities of fear, repression, worry, and a sense of loss. It is interesting to note that in two of the prior three cases of this 11-12 year cycle (1973 and 1985), a crisis was unfolding in the banking community. People had trouble making payments on their debts and credit was tightened considerably, driving many into severe financial straits. Sound familiar? (read, sub-prime). If any declines in world equity markets can hold their declines above the lows of August during this period, I would think the new 4-year cycle would become quite bullish shortly afterwards. However, if there is to be a crack in the system (again), coincident with a sense of financial panic, that’s when it could occur – if it didn’t already manifest in July through early September. Sometimes cycles of this length can have an orb of up to a few months. Nevertheless, these three signatures are all coming up together October 9-27, so caution is still warranted. |
The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.
This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.
It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.
