Saturday, January 12, 2008

Stock Market Comments for the Week Beginning January 14, 2008

Written by Raymond Merriman

Review and Preview

Welcome to the Saturn-Uranus opposition preview.

Starting on Election Day, November 4, 2008, Saturn will make five passages of its 45-year opposition cycle to Uranus, lasting through July 26, 2010. Those who study Financial Astrology know that this is one of the most significant geocosmic correlations to long-term stock market cycles, per the studies done in “The Ultimate Book on Stock market Timing Volume 2: Geocosmic Correlations to Investment Cycles.” But this past week, we had a preview of what this longer-term planetary pair cycle might be like, as transiting Venus translated the midpoint of the developing opposition between Saturn and Uranus.

For most of the world’s stock indices, the declines of the prior week continued this past week. However, these declines were not straight down. In fact there were sudden and sharp rallies. There were wide price swings. For instance, the Dow Jones Industrial Average made a new 9 month low on Wednesday, falling top 12,501. That was below the low of last August 16, which represented the steepest decline so far of the expanded 4-year cycle. Wednesday’s low exceeded that, suggesting that this expanded cycle is still unfolding, as suspected. But by the next day the DJIA soared over 400 points, up to 12,931 during the day. Yet that rally quickly fizzled as the DJIA gave back 400+ points into Friday’s low of 12,543. Wide prices swings lime these in such very short periods of time, is the nature of Saturn (depressed prices or news) and Uranus (sharp price swings). Last week’s Venus translation, as a T-square to that forthcoming Saturn-Uranus opposition, just gave us a preview what world stock indices may be like from November 2008 through July 2010.

The price behavior was also similar in the NASDAQ Composite, which fell to a low of 2407.39 on Wednesday, just a little above its 2386 low of August 16, for a potential case of intermarket bullish divergence if those lows hold. By the next day, it was back above 2500, but only briefly, as it sold off to as low as 2428 during the day on Friday.

There were no such rallies in Australia or Japan, where stock indices just fell the entire week. In fact the Japanese Nikkei is now testing the 14,000 mark, it lowest level since June 2006. The ASX All Ords index of Australia is now testing the 6000 mark, far off its all-time highs of 6873 posted on November 1. Even India’s NIFTY index fell a bit after posting a new all-time of 6357 on January 8. It closed the week at 6200. The Hang Seng of Hong Kong was relatively quiet all week, not making any new monthly highs or lows.

Europe on the other hand was down all week too, but not too new multi-month lows in all indexes. The AEX of Netherlands is currently testing the 479 lows of last August. But the German DAX and London FTSE are holding well above the lows of not only last August, but November too. The Swiss Index took out those lows on Monday, falling all the way to 8070. But, after a strong rally to 8385 the next day, the Swiss index also started a decline that lasted well into Friday, taking prices back down to 8156. Most of the indices of the world thus closed the week rather to their lows, giving a sense of more troubles ahead for stocks.

Gold and Silver, on the other hand, soared sharply last week, with Gold poking above the 900 mark for the first time ever. March Silver closed right near its high of the week at 1637, a level not seen since 1980. Crude Oil did not fare so well, closing the week at 92.31, well off its all-time high of just over 1200 posted on January 3. Interestingly enough, Crude Oil made cycle lows within a week of the prior two passages of Jupiter trine Saturn in March and May 2007. It is coming up again January 21. Jupiter is a co-ruler of Crude Oil.

Short-Term Geocosmics

The Venus-Uranus square ends on Saturday, January 12. With Venus in Sagittarius and Uranus in Pisces – both mutable signs – it should not be surprising that the stocks markets of the world experienced such wild swings last week. Mutable signs are known for their “changeable” qualities. That may be even more understandable given that the Moon was in Aquarius, the sign ruled by Uranus, Wednesday through Friday, when the steepest price swings were in force.

From here, the markets will head towards the third of five passages of the Jupiter-Saturn trine on January 21. The first two passes were in fire signs, back on March 16 and May 6. The March 16 date was just two days after the end of a very sharp 2-3 week stock market sell-off. May 6 was one day before a crest in the NASDAQ Composite, followed by a modest sell-off into May 16. But now we begin a series of three more of these passages, but in earth signs. From our studies reported in our Stock Market Timing series books, it is not unusual to see a 4-year cycle in U.S. stocks form within one month of one of these middle passes. That means any low forming now – or with the next passage, which is September 8 – could be the 4-year cycle trough (which is now stretched out to 6 years for the first time since 1932-38).

It will also be interesting to observe the movement of Venus into Capricorn on January 24. For the following 8 days, it will cross the Jupiter-Pluto conjunction. You may remember that Jupiter and Pluto conjoined exactly on December 11, the day from which the current sell-off began. If the influence of that conjunction is still in force, we might see a significant rally into January 24-February 1, the time band in which Venus translates the Jupiter-Pluto conjunction. But we must keep in mind that in December, the two planets were in late Sagittarius., This time they will be in early Capricorn. We will have to wait and see if the results are the same, or perhaps opposite, what we saw in December.

Longer-Term Thoughts

The Venus translation to the Saturn-Uranus opposition was not only noticeable for its surprises and sudden changes in the stock markets of the world. It was also evident in last Tuesday’s primary election in New Hampshire. Going into that election, all the polls showed Barack Obama well ahead of Hillary Clinton, by 9-14%. Following his surprisingly large win in Iowa the prior week, Obama seemed to have a momentum that could not be stopped. Mike Huckabee also had great momentum following his victory in Iowa too. But both Huckabee and Obama fell far short of what they had hoped for, and what the polls had suggested, as Clinton (for the Democrats) and McCain (for the Republicans) executed remarkable comebacks to win. As last week’s column stated, “This coming week will also feature a new moon at 17 degrees of Capricorn on Tuesday. This is where transiting Jupiter will be on Election Day, November 4, 2008. In fact, the Moon will also return to this position at the start of Election Day too (a lunar return to this new moon). Consequently we are getting a preview of what this election holds in the next two weeks, during the waxing phase (new moon through the full moon), in effect January 8 through 22. Any candidate who gains momentum during this period has a good chance of being on the ballot in November. Based on this principle, it would seem that New Hampshire may be more reflective of what to expect in November than Iowa was this past week – unless of course, these primaries mirror the Iowa results. But I wouldn’t rest on those results if I were Obama or Huckabee.”

As a Mundane Astrologer, it is tempting to predict that one of those two winners (Clinton or McCain) will be the next president of the United States, simply on the basis of the new moon position on last Tuesday’s primary being at the same degree as the Jupiter position on the national Election Day. Historically, New Hampshire has an 85% historical rate of accuracy for choosing the presidential candidates of each party in its primary. It is shaping up to be one of the most exciting elections in the United States in a very long time. Previously this column had also pointed to the importance of Saturn and Uranus in opposition as being a period when one must follow “the youth” in order to spot new trends emerging. That 45-year cyclical aspect makes its first of five passages right on Election Day. The turnout of the youth may very well decide who the next president of the Untied States is. They turned out in unexpectedly large numbers the previous week to deliver Obama the victory in Iowa. Will they do it again in November, thus kicking off this longer-term planetary cycle’s past history? Or will the geocosmic similarities between last Tuesday’s new moon and the position of the Moon-Jupiter on Election Day be the dominating astrological correlate? Or something else entirely? Any time Uranus is involved, there is bound to be “unexpected” developments that alter the most sophisticated forecasting tools – like polls, which were dead wrong for New Hampshire. Financial Astrology methods, on the other, were more accurate in this case. But which do you think the general public will follow most closely as this election unfolds? Astrology would suggest that the polls could be wrong again going into the voting on Election Day itself, based on both the New Moon in to Jupiter correlation, and the Saturn-Uranus opposition. It might be a good wager to task at the last minute.

1 comment:

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