Tuesday, March 4, 2008

Stock Market Comments for the Week Beginning February 25, 2008

Written by Raymond Merriman

Stock markets around the world traded in a rather narrow range last week, consistent with the principle of Mercury slowing down as it changed from a retrograde to a direct motion. On Wednesday evening, Thursday morning, there was a lunar eclipse conjunct Saturn. Many stock markets were making a modest rally into that time, and then sold off a bit to end the week. But the big stories were in commodities. Crude Oil made a slightly higher new all-time high at 101.32 on Wednesday. Prices then retreated back to 97.16 intraday on Friday before closing the week at 98.81. Gold also made a new all-time high last week, on Thursday, at 957.10. Silver soared above 1800 for the first time in 27 years. The currencies were also very strong against the U.S. Dollar, with Euro back up above 1.4800, and challenging its all-time high of 1.4966 recorded back in November. In the food sector, Soybeans also soared to a new all-time under the lunar eclipse factor, topping out last week at $14.22/bushel. Despite the data of economic reports, it is apparent that raw goods prices are in a state of inflation, and with the Dollar falling again, this trend is continuing. And as we know from previous discussions, this trend could continue until the Saturn-Pluto cycle ends and begins anew, which is not until January 2020 +/- 18 months. Of course there will be mini-bear and bull markets within this long-term 32-37 year cycle. But basically the cycles gores like this: economic prosperity and favorable investment environment from the conjunction to opposition (1982-2001), versus commodity inflation and economic struggles from opposition to conjunction (2001-2020).

Review and Preview

Stock markets around the world traded in a rather narrow range last week, consistent with the principle of Mercury slowing down as it changed from a retrograde to a direct motion. On Wednesday evening, Thursday morning, there was a lunar eclipse conjunct Saturn. Many stock markets were making a modest rally into that time, and then sold off a bit to end the week. But the big stories were in commodities. Crude Oil made a slightly higher new all-time high at 101.32 on Wednesday. Prices then retreated back to 97.16 intraday on Friday before closing the week at 98.81. Gold also made a new all-time high last week, on Thursday, at 957.10. Silver soared above 1800 for the first time in 27 years. The currencies were also very strong against the U.S. Dollar, with Euro back up above 1.4800, and challenging its all-time high of 1.4966 recorded back in November. In the food sector, Soybeans also soared to a new all-time under the lunar eclipse factor, topping out last week at $14.22/bushel. Despite the data of economic reports, it is apparent that raw goods prices are in a state of inflation, and with the Dollar falling again, this trend is continuing. And as we know from previous discussions, this trend could continue until the Saturn-Pluto cycle ends and begins anew, which is not until January 2020 +/- 18 months. Of course there will be mini-bear and bull markets within this long-term 32-37 year cycle. But basically the cycles gores like this: economic prosperity and favorable investment environment from the conjunction to opposition (1982-2001), versus commodity inflation and economic struggles from opposition to conjunction (2001-2020).

Short-Term Geocosmics

We are now coming into a potentially very interesting geocosmic period. As stated in last week’s report, “But an important geocosmic period commences the following week, February 25 through March 7, when the Sun will form an opposition to Saturn and end with a conjunction to Uranus. In essence, this is yet another period of a faster moving body translating the more important slower moving aspect. The Sun is translating the Saturn-Uranus opposition of later this year, and hence February 25-March 7 may offer a glimpse of what to expect from November 2008 through July 2010 when that Saturn-Uranus opposition is in effect. One might expect a very sudden turn of markets during that period, especially near the end, for Mars will also cross the 0 degree Cancer point on March 4. Historically that is a period when central banks make critical changes or announcements in their interest rate policies, which in turn affect Treasuries and currency prices, and by association, also precious metals and stock markets.”

Within this highly charged geocosmic period, we may see the greatest level of volatility right near the end. On March 4, heliocentric Mercury will also enter Sagittarius through March 17. This is a period that has a very high correlation to sharp price swings in many markets, especially precious metals and currencies. With heliocentric Mercury in Sagittarius at the same time as the new moon in Pisces conjunct Uranus around March 7, it could be a very dramatic time coming up. Last week may have been relatively quiet in world stock indices, but I would expect that to change in the next two weeks. The question of course is whether that means a powerful rally starts at once and continues into that time, or if instead a powerful decline commences that ends around that time. With Uranus, you never know for sure. Oh, some pundits may think they know ahead of time, for under Uranus aspects, nearly everyone thinks they are psychic and/or knowledgeable. But Uranus has a way of defying logic and making dogmatic types look foolish. It also has a way of causing large losses to those who are grossly mistaken in their conviction as to how the market must behave. So the best way to handle this is to be flexible and nimble.

Longer-Term Thoughts

In lieu of our comments recently made in this column about how the U.S.A. election results will depend greatly on the turnout of the youth, a report out of the Detroit Free Press on Wednesday was most interesting. It stated, “The youth vote tripled and even quadrupled in some states on Super Tuesday. U.S. Senator Barack Obama, with his inspirational words about unity and new approaches to our nation’s challenges has struck a chord on college campuses around the country.”

So it seems clear that Barack Obama represents the Uranus part of the Saturn-Uranus opposition that starts this year, in terms of the U.S.A. election. And it seems clear that John McCain will represent the Saturn part of this signature, since Saturn is conservative, and also pertains to older age (McCain, if elected, would be the oldest president to assume office). So where does this put Hillary Clinton? Well, she too is Uranus, for if elected, she would be the first female president, and the 45-year Saturn-Uranus opposition does have in common historical theme related to women’s rights.

Right now Obama has the momentum and is in the lead. Can he pull it off? It is possible, of course, because of Uranus. But also because of Uranus, there are many expected things that can and probably will still happen that no one anticipates. My view remains that the geocosmic signatures on Election Day will point to the themes that will sway the votes of the population. And on Election Day, the Moon will be in Capricorn conjunct Jupiter, just as it was on the day of the New Hampshire primary and Super Tuesday. I don’t think you can count any of these three leading candidates out at this time. But on Election Day itself, it still appears that the American electorate will go for experience, tradition, and the candidate who makes them feel the most “safe.” Fear still sells. And as result, I am not so sure that Americans will change their stance that this country is headed in the wrong direction, a belief that appears to be shared by over 75% of the U.S.A. population.

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